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Sep 30,2020

September 30, 2020

Daily Market Analysis

Market Focus

The end-of-month rebound in global equities faded as investors weighed prospects for fiscal stimulus in the U.S. and the outlook for the coronavirus pandemic. Oil tumbled on concern slow growth will limit demand. WTI oil fell toward $39 a barrel in New York.

The S&P 500 Index slumped, with more than two stocks falling for every one that advanced, after talks on expanding aid ended for the day with plans to resume discussions tomorrow. Elsewhere, Banks led broad-based declines in the Stoxx Europe 600 index. On the other hands, data showing New York City’s rate of positive tests rose above 3% for the first time in months weighed on sentiment.

With the pandemic’s global death toll exceeding 1 million and virus cases on the upswing in many locales, investors are pinning hopes on a $2.2 trillion stimulus proposal by Democrats to help support economic growth. End-of-month and end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing could also be exacerbating market moves as September comes to a close.

The negotiations between the Trump administration and congressional Democrats are reaching a critical juncture this week. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke Tuesday morning for 50 minutes and are set to speak again Wednesday.

 

Market Wrap

 

Main Pairs Movement

The dollar touched the lowest in almost a week after a report showed consumer confidence rebounded by the most in 17 years and as traders eye the U.S. presidential debate later Tuesday.

The euro is on pace to rise the most this month on short covering amid rebalancing flows. Euro hovered 0.6% to 1.1738 as writing around the market close and versus session high of 1.1745. According to market data, real money flows ahead of month-end which was also short covering on disappointment spot could not dropped below 1.16, where large options expire later this week.

Aussie advance 0.9% to 0.7149 lead in G-10, Japan yen +0.2% to 105.69 hit two week high which not only easing fears of stock market sentiment also driven in part by EUR/JPY short covering as cross rises to its highest level since Sept. 18.

 

COVID-19 Data (EOD):

 

Technical Analysis:

XAUUSD (H4)

Gold close around 1898.07 and ushered consecutive 2 days as share market hovered mixed. Also, new congressional debate of stimulus package beef up inflation prospect that spur precious mental price up. According to the 4-hour chart, gold just breakthrough double bottom pattern with novated high price in short term. Moreover, RSI index is benign upward with 62 figures, suggesting a bullish gaudiness. On the other hands, 15-MA turn upward with positive side.

However, high negative relative argue, DXY index, has tamp down to a critical support as the 93.7 level while it close at 93.87 as writing. According the image blow, we believe that gold price will more gird shares market rather than the risk aversion sentiment since unprecedented pull back from Covid-19 plummet.

Resistance: 1883, 1900

Support: 1873.84, 1870.8, 1850.7

 

EURUSD(H4)

Euro dollar has bounced back from monthly beleaguered at 1.1618 to currently around 1.1743 that we believe amid revival from stock market sentiment in fit and start. Meanwhile, reports alleged Germany sees an increasing likelihood that the EU’s unprecedented stimulus package could be stall. On the other hands, Euro Union is heading to leader summit tomorrow.

For RSI perspective, it strongly pulls back from over sought threshold to 66, suggesting bullish gaudiness in short term. Moreover, 15-MA shows turn into positive slope and 60-MA is getting slow pace of downward.

According to 4-hour chart, the first resistance represents heavy stress level of sell position since last slipped.

 

Resistance: 1.1762, 1.1794

Support: 1.1712, 1.1684

 

USDCAD (H4)

Lonnie once dropped to daily low of 1.335 on Tuesday but staged a higher in the early American session. As of writing, pair was up 0.12% on the day at 1.3388. On the other hands, falling crude oil price weighed on the commodities-linked loonie and fueled it to reverse direction. At the moment, the barrel of WTI is down to $39.95.

For RSI perspective, index suggesting upward signal but curbed around the neutral area. Other than this, both long- and short-term MA is heading to upward, but short term seems getting flat.

 

Resistance: 1.342, 1.3459

Support: 1.3344, 1.3265, 1.3143

 

Economic Data